4E: ETH whale activity and institutional easing signals intertwine, leading to a significant recovery in on-chain sentiment.

According to Mars Finance, 4E observations indicate that the risk of the long position held by the "CZ counterparty whale" on the blockchain has been rapidly mitigated. When its ETH long position fell to $2623 last week, it was only $28 away from the liquidation price of $2595, resulting in a floating loss of $44 million. Now, the floating loss has shrunk to $16.13 million, recovering $27.87 million. This position still needs ETH to rebound to $3200 to fully recover. On the other hand, a rare "ancient whale" action has occurred on the blockchain. A whale holding 254,900 ETH obtained from an early ICO appears to have sold 20,000 ETH after eight months, worth approximately $58.14 million, with an entry cost of only $0.31. The whale recently deposited 20,000 ETH into FalcoinX at a price of $2906, and currently still holds 3070 ETH on the blockchain. On the staking side, SharpLink (SBET) added 443 ETH staking rewards in the past week, bringing the total to 7,846 ETH since June this year, indicating that the ETH staking reward structure remains robust. In terms of public opinion, Arca CIO Jeff Dorman again refuted the "Strategy (MSTR) forced to sell BTC" theory, emphasizing that unless the BTC price drops significantly enough to render the sell-off meaningless, Strategy has no need to sell assets, and most market rumors are misunderstandings. 4E Commentary: With four signals converging— whale reducing losses, ancient whale cashing out, stable staking rewards, and institutional refutations—ETH sentiment is currently recovering from extreme pessimism to neutral. Short-term volatility remains high, but on-chain structural risks are decreasing, and the market has re-entered a "cautiously bullish" observation window.