Bitcoin set to slump to new lows for 2026 after recent sell-off, traders forecast

Bitcoin prices fell to their lowest levels since early April on Tuesday after a decline spurred by crypto treasury company Strategy selling a small amount of its bitcoin holding intensified. 

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think the cryptocurrency has more room to fall in its current "crypto winter."

There's a nearly 80% chance that the flagship crypto's price will fall below $60,000 in 2026. That would mean bitcoin hitting a new low, tumbling below February's levels. Early that month, bitcoin dropped as low as $60,062.

Traders also think there's a 52% chance prices will dip under $50,000 this year. Bitcoin hasn't traded with a four in front of its price since August 2024. 

Bitcoin prices are off more than 45% since their highs of more than $120,000 last October.

Week to date, the cryptocurrency is down nearly 10% and bitcoin was last trading around $66,500.

Traders on Kalshi have also grown more bearish on the outlook for when the cryptocurrency might hit six figures again. They give just a 27% chance that happens in 2026, after giving it nearly 50% odds as recently as early May. 

Traders on Polymarket, meanwhile, see a 12% likelihood bitcoin hits all-time highs in 2026. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.