Bitcoin Swings Wildly as Fed's Powell Straddles Labor Market and Inflation Issues

• Crypto prices were volatile on Wednesday, erasing much of their gains following the Fed's rate cut earlier.
• In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell took note of a labor market that might be weaker than previously thought, while also sounding cautious about gains made in fighting inflation.

Bitcoin BTC$90,098.03 spiked above $94,000 and then quickly retreated as Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded both dovish and hawkish after the central bank delivered a 25 basis-point rate cut on Wednesday.

Swinging around $92,000 for most of the day, BTC jolted to $94,400 as Powell — in his post-meeting press conference — emphasized risks of a possibly weaker than thought labor market, before giving back most of the gains after he said the battle over too-high inflation is far from over.

Recently, BTC fell to $92,000, down 0.8% over the past 24 hours. Ether ETH$3,191.07 extended its recent streak of relative strength, wobbling above $3,300 and rising about 1.1% during the same period.

U.S. stocks were showing gains shortly before the close of trading, with the Nasdaq higher by 0.5% and the S&P 500 by 0.7%. The most notable move of the day, though, was likely the dollar, which was posting about 0.6% declines versus the yen, euro, and cable.

Fed policy, said Powell in his post-meeting press conference, is now "within a range of plausible estimates of neutral, and leave us well-positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments."

"We're well positioned to wait and see [about further rate cuts]," he added.

Powell acknowledged that there'll be "a great deal of data" before the Fed's next meeting in January that will influence how the central bank moves forward.

Along with the Fed's decision earlier to trim its fed funds rate range by 25 basis points, the New York Fed announced it will begin purchasing short-term Treasury bills, and Treasury securities with remaining maturities of up to 3 years if needed, targeting around $40 billion in purchases over the next month starting on Friday — a step aimed at easing financial conditions without signaling the start of a full-blown quantitative easing cycle.

Powell said that the purchases will stay "elevated" for a few months.

That marks a change from the past three years of the central bank reducing its balance sheet following the rapid expansion during the pandemic years.

Analyst takes

"The Fed made clear that this cut does not mark the start of an aggressive easing cycle, with emphasis on the fact that future moves will depend heavily on incoming inflation and labour-market data," Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at brokerage firm Capital.com said in a note.

"While policymakers agreed on the need to ease modestly amid patchy post-shutdown data and signs of slowing momentum, the updated communication stressed caution," she added.

"The fact that two FOMC members voted for no change in rates shows that this was a close call, complicated by a lack of full data," said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings. The relatively mild pick up in core inflation in recent months probably swayed the committee that another cut — while keeping rates somewhat above neutral — was justified.

"It seems unlikely that rates continue to fall at sequential meetings from here. We now expect just two more cuts by June 2026, taking the Fed Funds rate to 3.25% (upper band)," he said.

"Between signaling a rate cut pause and restarting Fed purchases of U.S. Treasuries, Powell is threading the needle between their two mandates," noted David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at 21Shares.

For bitcoin to break higher from its trading range, Hernandez said that it needs fresh momentum to "overpower the concentrated short pressure" at around the $94,500 resistance zone, right where Wednesday's burst higher hit a ceiling.

"If spot ETF inflows strengthen as expected now that the cost of capital is falling, that could become the spark that transforms caution into momentum and drives Bitcoin back above the $100,000 psychological barrier," he said.

UPDATE (Dec. 10, 21:15 UTC): Updates prices with BTC falling back to $92,000 later.

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