Cornyn, Paxton head to Texas GOP Senate runoff, DDHO projects

Cornyn, Paxton head to Texas GOP Senate runoff, DDHO projects

Cornyn, Paxton Head to Texas GOP Senate Runoff as Campaign Spending Surpasses $95 Million

The Texas Republican Senate primary, held March 3, 2026, concluded without a majority winner, sending U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton to a May 26 runoff. The race, one of the most expensive in U.S. history, saw over $95 million in combined spending from candidates and allies, reflecting deep divisions within the GOP and the high stakes for national political strategy.

Cornyn, a three-decade incumbent, faced a record $70 million in spending from his campaign and pro-Cornyn super PACs, including attacks on Paxton's personal conduct and legal controversies. Paxton, a MAGA-aligned figure, spent just $4.4 million, relying on name recognition and grassroots support amid ongoing divorce proceedings and past felony charges dropped in 2024. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, a third candidate, drew significant late-stage spending—nearly $6 million from both sides—yet failed to secure enough votes to advance.

The runoff's financial implications are substantial. Cornyn's team has emphasized his 99% vote alignment with former President Donald Trump, while Paxton's camp argues Cornyn's moderate record risks GOP control of the Senate. Prediction markets favor Paxton, with Polymarket pricing his victory at 82% and Cornyn at 17%. A Paxton win could force national Republicans to reallocate resources to a general election against a likely Democratic nominee, who polls show is energizing voters after a competitive primary of their own.

The electorate's composition also carries financial weight. Early voting data revealed 41% of Republican primary voters were over 70, a demographic Cornyn's team believes favors their candidate. However, runoffs typically draw smaller, more ideologically driven turnouts—Paxton's base— potentially amplifying negative advertising and legal scrutiny of Cornyn's record.

With no Trump endorsement secured, the runoff's outcome may hinge on which candidate better mobilizes Texas' conservative base amid a general election that could cost upwards of $200 million. The race underscores the GOP's struggle to balance establishment pragmatism with grassroots demands, a tension likely to ripple across 2026 midterm spending and party strategy.

According to Texas Tribune reporting: Texas Tribune, NBC News
As prediction markets indicate: Newsweek, Polymarket
Based on campaign data: Texas Tribune, Lone Star Liberty PAC
According to NBC News analysis: NBC News, AdImpact