Wall Street bank JPMorgan says stablecoin market could grow to $600 billion by 2028

AI Summary4 min read

TL;DR

JPMorgan forecasts stablecoin market could reach $500-600 billion by 2028, well below bullish $2-4 trillion projections. Current $308 billion supply grew $100 billion this year, driven mainly by crypto trading rather than payments adoption.

Key Takeaways

•JPMorgan projects stablecoin market growth to $500-600 billion by 2028, significantly lower than most optimistic forecasts of $2-4 trillion
•Stablecoin supply increased by $100 billion this year to approximately $308 billion, led by USDT and USDC
•Current demand is primarily driven by crypto trading, derivatives, and DeFi activities rather than payments adoption
•Payments adoption may increase stablecoin velocity more than supply, as wider use doesn't necessarily require larger token float
•Competition may emerge from bank tokenized deposits and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as alternatives to private stablecoins

JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London — JPMorgan research shares a modest view on stablecoin growth. (Ikechukwu Julius Ugwu/Unsplash)

What to know:

JPMorgan said stablecoin supply is up about $100 billion this year to roughly $308 billion, led by USDT and USDC.
The bank's analysts expect steady growth into 2028, but well below the most bullish projections.
Trading demand still dominates, and payments adoption may lift stablecoin velocity more than supply, the report said.

JPMorgan said stablecoin supply is up about $100 billion this year to roughly $308 billion, led by USDT and USDC.
The bank's analysts expect steady growth into 2028, but well below the most bullish projections.
Trading demand still dominates, and payments adoption may lift stablecoin velocity more than supply, the report said.

Wall Street bank JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) said the stablecoin supply could reach $500 billion to $600 billion by 2028, far short of the most bullish $2 trillion to $4 trillion calls.

Stablecoin demand is still primarily a crypto-market story, not a payments story, according to the largest U.S. bank by assets.

JPMorgan noted that the stablecoin market has grown about $100 billion this year to roughly $308 billion, led by Tether’s USDT and Circle’s (CRCL) USDC.

Demand is still driven mainly by crypto trading and collateral needs across derivatives and decentralized finance (DeFi), with derivatives venues adding about $20 billion in stablecoin holdings alongside a surge in perpetual futures activity, the report said.

"The vast majority of stablecoin demand stems from their use as cash or collateral in the crypto ecosystem to facilitate crypto trading including derivatives trading, DeFi lending and borrowing," wrote analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, in the Wednesday report.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to assets such as fiat currencies or gold, but most often the U.S. dollar. They underpin much of the crypto economy, serving as payment rails and a tool for moving money across borders.

The analysts said payments are a smaller driver today but could grow as more providers test stablecoin-based rails for cross-border transfers.

Still, the report said wider payment use doesn’t automatically require a much larger stablecoin float because velocity, how quickly tokens circulate, can rise as integration deepens.

Banks and payment networks are also moving to protect their role in institutional flows through tokenized deposits and other blockchain initiatives, while Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) efforts could offer regulated alternatives that compete with private stablecoins, the report added.

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