Musk stated that a new Grok model will be released this year, but the probability of its release within the year is currently only 23%.

According to Mars Finance, on December 15th, PolyBeats reported that after Elon Musk posted on December 7th that Grok 4.20 would be released within 3 to 4 weeks, he subsequently confirmed on the 10th that Grok 4.20 would be released within three weeks, sparking market discussions about the exact release date of Grok 4.20 and the creation of betting odds on whether Grok 4.20 would be released before a certain date. Based on Musk's tweets, Grok 4.20 should be released before December 31st, but currently, the probability of a release before December 31st is only 23%. Considering the potential slowdown in engineering team work due to the Christmas and New Year holidays, the market generally believes that a release before the end of the year is less likely. Currently, the probabilities for the other three dates are: January 15th 75%, January 31st 83%, and April 20th 96%.