Stifel: Bitcoin price may fall to around $38,000

According to a report by CoinDesk, analysts at financial services firm Stifel predict that the price of Bitcoin could fall to around $38,000. This prediction is based on a long-term trend line connecting the lows of Bitcoin's major bear markets since 2010, which currently points to around $38,000. The analyst team argues in their report that the relationship between Bitcoin and the US dollar and the global money supply has reversed since 2025. Previously, Bitcoin typically rose when the dollar weakened and global liquidity increased, exhibiting an "inverse relationship" with fiat currencies; however, its price movement has now shifted to a positive correlation with the dollar and an increasing correlation with the Nasdaq index and growth stocks. The report points out that although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in its last three meetings in 2025, its stance remains hawkish, and the rising borrowing costs for technology companies could lead to tighter financial conditions, further pressuring the Bitcoin market.