Data: BTC short-term holders capitulate; on-chain data shows panic selling is nearing its end.

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin is currently experiencing the most severe short-term holder (STH) capitulation phase of this cycle. Key indicators show typical cyclical bottoming characteristics forming: three panic signals are appearing simultaneously: STH-SOPR has fallen to 0.97: short-term holders are selling at a loss; this indicator has been below the 1.0 threshold for several weeks, forming a capitulation zone, historically only occurring at major turning points; STH-MVRV is far below 1.0: almost all recent buyers are at a loss, with profitability at its weakest historical level; 65,200 BTC have been transferred to exchanges at a loss: panic is not just on paper but has translated into actual losses. Historical patterns show that when STH losses reach extreme levels, SOPR remains below 1.0, MVRV shows heavy pressure, and exchange inflows are driven by panic rather than fundamentals, it usually marks the late stage of a correction. However, an immediate rebound is not guaranteed, but the cleansing of weak hands is in full swing, and historically this process often indicates that the quantitative conditions for a cyclical recovery are aligning.