Institutions: If the unemployment rate rises by 0.1% per month, the Fed's room for interest rate cuts is underestimated.
TL;DR
U.S. inflation in November was lower than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose. If the unemployment rate increases by 0.1% monthly, the Fed's potential for interest rate cuts next year might be underestimated.
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Odaily Odaily reports that U.S. inflation in November was far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose. Investors have been reluctant to interpret these figures too closely due to the distorted and incomplete information caused by the 43-day federal government shutdown. Michael Lorizio, head of U.S. interest rates and mortgage trading at Manulife Investment Management, stated, "Even taking that into account, this highlights that there is very limited room for current inflation data to rise significantly beyond expectations. If the labor market continues on its current trajectory, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage point per month, I think the scope for further interest rate cuts next year may be somewhat underestimated." (Jinshi)