HTX DeepThink: A sudden shift in US and Japanese macroeconomic trends leaves sentiment recovery during BTC pullback fragile.
TL;DR
US and Japanese policy shifts create macroeconomic volatility, pressuring Bitcoin. Institutional defense and lowered bullish targets reflect fragile sentiment during BTC pullback.
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On December 8, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, pointed out that as the year draws to a close, the global macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly volatile due to the divergence in US and Japanese policies, putting downward pressure on global risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Core driving force and contradictory signals:
US policy uncertainty: Despite slowing inflation data and rising market expectations for interest rate cuts, news from the Trump camp that Kevin Hassett might succeed as Federal Reserve Chairman caused bond yields to rise.
Japan's policy shift: The Japan Times revealed that Bank of Japan officials are inclined to raise the policy rate to 0.75% (the highest level since 1995) at the December 19 meeting, exacerbating the policy divergence between the US and Japan.
Bitcoin market performance:
Institutional defense: Negative ETF fund flows and declining futures open interest indicate that institutions are in a defensive posture.
Options paradox: Implied volatility (IV) has fallen across the board (short-term IV dropped from 57% to 48%), indicating a weakening of volatility expectations. However, Amberdata's risk reversal indicator remains negative (around -4.9), suggesting that investors still tend to hedge downside risk with put options.
The report emphasizes that large funds have lowered their year-end bullish target range to $100,000 to $118,000, while $80,000 to $82,000 is generally considered a key support range for Bitcoin.