Bitcoin momentum gauge hints at recovery. Experts remain cautious.

This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.

Bitcoin BTC$65,404.78 and the broader crypto market steadied Wednesday from Tuesday's slide after Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, sold a small portion of its stash and spot ETFs extended a record run of net outflows.

The cryptocurrency's 14-day RSI has dropped below 30, a textbook oversold reading. The indicator measures the speed and magnitude of price movement over a two-week period.

While a reading below 30 suggests bearish momentum is dominant, analysts often read this as a sign that the selloff has been too rapid and could stall, allowing for a recovery. While not guaranteed, it's a stance that has played out several times.

Oversold readings in early February, November 2025, late February 2025, and August 2024 marked interim or major price bottoms. So there are hopes the selloff may soon ease.

Some analysts are more cautious. “Blood is in the water, trade accordingly,” Monarq Asset Management said in a Telegram chat.

“With the long‑anticipated regulatory clarity from the Clarity Act looking less likely every day (Jamie Dimon openly hostile, pulling no punches, using DC clout to position against it), value and speculative buyers are stepping back and looking for the long‑term, long‑anticipated capitulation move,” Monarq CIO Sam Gaer told CoinDesk.

According to Gaer, $60,000 is back in focus and a break below that level could trigger a sell‑off to as low as $45,000, as forecast by the theory that the BTC price follows a four‑year cycle.

QCP Capital noted a spike in BTC implied volatility, saying the message is less “buy the dip” and more “please insure the dip before discussing it.”

Broadly speaking, weakening institutional and corporate bids and Fed rate‑hike concerns limit the scope for a sustainable recovery even as the RSI hints at a potential bounce. According to QCP, BTC needs to hold above $67,000 to restore bullish sentiment. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

What’s trending

• Bullish crypto bets lose $1.6 billion as ETH, SOL, DOGE drop 9% (CoinDesk): Crypto traders hoping the market would catch up to the global stock rally were left nursing tears on Wednesday as a sharp price drop triggered the largest liquidation event since early February.
• Prediction market traders bet bitcoin's selloff has further to run (CoinDesk): Markets now imply a 66% chance of bitcoin falling below $55,000 and a coin-flip chance of sub-$50,000 prices before year-end.
• SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target, Morningstar says (CNBC): With SpaceX expected to start trading on the Nasdaq in just over two weeks, Morningstar analysts say it is “significantly overvalued.”
• Hostilities flare in Iran war, oil jumps with talks at a stalemate (Reuters): The flare-up, which sent oil prices rising more than 1%, comes with the conflict stalemated in a shaky ceasefire and the ‌Strait of Hormuz largely closed, more than three months after initial U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Today’s signal

The chart shows bitcoin's daily price swings in candlestick format with the 14-day relative strength index in the lower panel.

The RSI has slipped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions. Similar readings have previously marked interim or temporary price bottoms.

This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.

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