Wintermute: The four-year cycle is becoming obsolete; liquidity and investor attention are the new drivers for the crypto market.
TL;DR
Wintermute argues that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is outdated, with market performance now driven by liquidity flows and investor attention. In 2025, crypto wealth transmission weakened, and retail interest shifted to equities, leading to shorter altcoin rallies. For 2026, market expansion requires ETFs broadening scope, major crypto rebounds, or retail attention returning to crypto to boost liquidity.
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According to an article published on the X platform by Odaily Odaily, Wintermute states that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is becoming obsolete. Market performance is no longer determined by a self-fulfilling time narrative, but rather by the flow of liquidity and the concentration of investor attention.
Wintermute's over-the-counter (OTC) flow data shows that the transmission of crypto-native wealth weakened in 2025. ETFs and DATs have evolved into "walled gardens," providing sustained demand for large-cap assets, but capital did not naturally rotate into the broader market. 2025 became an extremely concentrated year as retail investor interest shifted towards equities, with Altcoin rallies averaging 20 days, down from 60 days in 2024.
For the market to break through the limitations of mainstream cryptocurrencies in 2026, at least one of the following three things needs to happen:
1. ETFs and DATs are expanding their investment scope, with ETF applications for SOL and XRP already emerging.
2. Major cryptocurrencies are performing strongly, and a strong rebound in Bitcoin or ETH could generate a wealth effect that spreads to a wider market.
3. Retail investors' attention is shifting from stocks (AI, rare earths, quantum) back to cryptocurrencies, bringing new capital inflows and stablecoin minting.
The outcome in 2026 will depend on whether one of these catalysts can significantly broaden liquidity beyond a few large-cap assets, or whether concentration will continue.