"The Fed's mouthpiece": Three rate cuts have failed to quell internal disputes; the risk of stagflation needs to be guarded against.
TL;DR
Despite three consecutive rate cuts, the Federal Reserve faces internal divisions over inflation versus job market concerns, hinting at low willingness for further cuts. Strong price pressures and a cooling labor market present a stagflation risk reminiscent of the 1970s, with Fed Chair Powell's upcoming term end adding uncertainty.
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PANews reported on December 11th that, according to Jinshi News, Nick Timiraos, a well-known voice within the Federal Reserve, recently wrote that while Fed officials have cut interest rates for the third consecutive meeting, there is an unusual division within the Fed regarding whether inflation or the job market should be a greater concern. Therefore, officials have hinted at a low willingness to continue cutting rates. Recent public comments from Fed officials indicate a deep division within the committee, to the point that the final decision may depend on how Fed Chairman Powell wants to proceed. Powell's term expires next May, meaning he will only chair the next three interest rate-setting meetings. Strong price pressures coupled with a cooling labor market present the Fed with an unpleasant trade-off, a situation unseen for decades. During the so-called "stagflation" of the 1970s, when officials faced a similar dilemma, the Fed's stop-and-go approach allowed high inflation to take hold. UBS Chief US Economist Jonathan Pingle stated, "As interest rates approach neutral, with each rate cut you lose more support from participants, and you need data to incentivize those participants to join the majority in implementing rate cuts."