Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks in Q4 bodes well for January, says K33's Lunde

• Bitcoin held in the $87,500 in U.S. afternoon action on Tuesday, up 2% over the past 24 hours.
• K33 analyst Vetle Lunde suggested BTC's relative weakness to stocks this quarter could mean rebalancing-led buying once January rolls around.

After an active morning, bitcoin BTC$85,944.78 stayed largely flat in the $87,500 area in U.S. afternoon trade, holding gains around the 2% over the past 24 hours. Altcoins, including ether ETH$2,921.02, XRP$1.8818 and solana SOL$127.39 showed similar upside action.

Crypto-related stocks were also seeing bounces after Monday's plunge, including a 3% gain for Strategy (MSTR) and a 1% advance for Coinbase (COIN).

Read more: Bitcoin bounces from Monday's worst levels, but sub-$80,000 may come next, analyst says

“Clients are positioned with cautious optimism," said Josh Barkhoarder, head of sales at FalconX. "In the short term, most expect crypto to remain range-bound until we see a clear catalyst, so they’re holding core bitcoin exposure and sitting on cash elsewhere."

BTC may benefit from rebalancing, analyst says

With year-end approaching, bitcoin may benefit from its sluggish performance compared to other asset classes through the quarter as asset managers rebalance their portfolios to maintain their mandated allocation, noted Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33.

Earlier this year, when BTC underperformed the S&P 500 index through the first quarter, it started the next with gains, according to Lunde. Conversely, when BTC outperformed equities in the second quarter, it booked declines in the beginning of the third.

So far in the fourth quarter, bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by a whopping 26%, suggesting that a sizable rebalancing is due.

"Fund managers with predetermined BTC allocation targets may adjust weights into year-end, potentially resulting in excess inflows during the final trading days of the year and into early January," Lunde continued.

Crypto traders hesitant

Despite prices stabilizing, market participants remain hesitant to take on new risk, K33's Lunde added.

Derivatives activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) remains near yearly lows, with BTC futures open interest hovering around 124,000 BTC, he wrote. On perpetual swap markets, funding rates hovered around the neutral rate with open interest showing little movement, signaling lack of short-term directional conviction.

Declining spot crypto trading volumes, down 12% through last week, also confirms that many traders remain reluctant to engage as the year is drawing to a close.

• As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
• GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
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• Dogecoin fell 5% after the Federal Reserve's rate cut, as traders reacted to cautious guidance and internal disagreements on future easing.
• The memecoin broke below the $0.1310 support level, confirming a bearish shift with increased trading volume.
• The $0.1310–$0.1315 zone is now a resistance area, with further downside likely if volume remains high on declines.

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