ICE U.K. nat gas March futures settle at 77.65 pence /therm

ICE U.K. nat gas March futures settle at 77.65 pence /therm

ICE U.K. Natural Gas March Futures Settle at 77.65 Pence/Therm Amid Tight Supply-Demand Balance

On February 20, 2026, ICE U.K. Natural Gas March futures settled at 77.65 pence per therm, reflecting ongoing tensions in the U.K. gas market. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, with the 5-day moving average at 123.512 and the 20-day average at 133.241, both significantly above the current price. The 14-day stochastic oscillator shows %K at 18.82% and %D at 19.53%, indicating oversold conditions, while the relative strength index (RSI) remains at 34.65, below neutral levels.

Fundamental factors underscore a precarious supply-demand balance. Argus Media estimates the U.K. could face a 40 million m³/d deficit in March, driven by insufficient LNG imports and constrained interconnector flexibility. Forward NBP premiums to northwest European LNG prices currently stand at 15¢/mn Btu, historically associated with only 25.5mn m³/d of LNG regasification since early 2023. Domestic production is projected at 85mn m³/d, with Norwegian imports averaging 74.3mn m³/d, leaving a 63mn m³/d gap for LNG to meet demand and interconnector flows.

Interconnector dynamics further complicate the outlook. U.K. exports to Belgium are expected to average 21mn m³/d, supported by ZTP-NBP premiums of 82¢/MWh, while flows to the Netherlands remain uncertain due to limited pipeline flexibility. A potential reversal of the BBL interconnector could divert an additional 13mn m³/d from the U.K., exacerbating the deficit.

Market participants are also monitoring QatarEnergy's delayed Golden Pass terminal startup, which may reduce March LNG availability. Meanwhile, backwardation in U.K. February-March spreads incentivizes rapid storage withdrawals, shifting risk to March.

The NBP-des spread must widen to attract sufficient LNG, but northwest Europe's depleted gas stocks may limit such adjustments. Recent deals for March LNG traded in the 60-70¢/mn Btu range, with bids reaching $1/mn Btu, signaling heightened uncertainty.

In summary, technical indicators and fundamental imbalances point to a fragile market, with price volatility likely as supply constraints and interconnector dynamics unfold.