Stock market's Santa tradition offers hope to battered Bitcoin bulls
TL;DR
The S&P 500's historical 'Santa rally' pattern in late December/early January could boost Bitcoin, which is having its worst Q4 since 2022. Increased institutional adoption has strengthened the link between stocks and crypto, making this seasonal trend more relevant for BTC bulls.
Key Takeaways
- •The S&P 500 has historically rallied during the final week of December and first two trading days of January, with positive returns in 77% of cases since the 1950s.
- •Bitcoin is experiencing its worst fourth quarter since 2022, but could benefit from spillover effects if the Santa rally pattern repeats in stocks.
- •Increased institutional adoption via ETFs has tightened the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional equities, making stock market seasonality more relevant for crypto.
- •Gold has been the top performer during Santa rally periods with 95% cumulative returns since 2005, while Bitcoin's history with the pattern is mixed but averages 7.9% gains since 2011.
- •While gold and the S&P 500 are near record highs, Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its peak, suggesting potential for catch-up if seasonal patterns hold.
What to know:
- Data show the S&P 500 tends to rally in the final week of December and first two trading days of January.
- A repeat of the historical pattern could bring relief to BTC, which is on track to register its worst fourth quarter since 2022.
- Data show the S&P 500 tends to rally in the final week of December and first two trading days of January.
- A repeat of the historical pattern could bring relief to BTC, which is on track to register its worst fourth quarter since 2022.
Bitcoin BTC$90,069.91 has experienced its toughest fourth quarter since 2022, but a time-honored Wall Street pattern could soon bring relief to battered BTC bulls.
That pattern is S&P 500's tendency to chalk out a Santa rally – an upswing during the final five trading days of December and the first two of January. A repeat of this pattern could improve sentiment in the bitcoin market.
Bullish Santa seasonality
Since 2005, the S&P 500 has gained during the Santa Claus rally period 15 times and lost only five times, averaging 0.58% returns, according to data source The Market Stats. Going back to the 1950s, it has risen 77% of the time and never declined three years in a row during this window. The index dipped in the last two Santa periods.
Taken together, these data sets mean that the S&P 500 is likely to chalk out a rally into the new year.
For BTC, this bullish S&P 500 seasonality increasingly matters as the increasing institutional adoption via ETFs has tightened the link between digital assets and equities. So, a festive bid in stocks could spill over into bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
BTC's Santa Claus rally history is checkered since launch, with strong return to the tune of 33% and 46% in 2011 and 2016, respectively. Other years have been weaker, with declines of 14% in 2014 and 10% in 2021. Still, it averages 7.9% since 2011, with the market being quite small and dominated by OGs in early years.
Gold, the star performer
According to TheMarketStats, gold has been the top performer, delivering a 95% cumulative return over this period. Looking back to 2005, only 2023 recorded a slight negative return.
This strength has coincided with gold pushing to new all time highs above $4,400 an ounce at press time, hinting at yet another positive Santa period.
Broadly speaking, while gold is trading at all-time highs, the S&P 500 is just 1.5% away from its own record levels. Meanwhile, bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its peak.
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
- BlackRock named its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) one of its top three investment themes for 2025, despite bitcoin falling more than 4% this year.
- IBIT has attracted over $25 billion in inflows since January, making it the sixth most popular ETF by new investment this year.
- The move signals BlackRock’s conviction that bitcoin belongs in diversified portfolios, even as traditional alternatives outperform.
Disclosure & Polices: CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk has adopted a set of principles aimed at ensuring the integrity, editorial independence and freedom from bias of its publications. CoinDesk is part of Bullish (NYSE:BLSH), an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services. Bullish owns and invests in digital asset businesses and digital assets and CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive Bullish equity-based compensation.