China's yuan fixing estimated at 6.7734, survey shows

A recent Bloomberg survey estimated the yuan’s central parity rate at 6.7734 per U.S. dollar, reflecting market expectations for PBOC's daily fixing. This estimate is based on the methodology used by the PBOC, which incorporates market maker quotes and excludes the highest and lowest offers to determine the weighted average rate. The actual fixing, however, may differ due to the PBOC’s discretion in managing the currency within a 2% trading band.

The yuan has shown a steady appreciation against the dollar in recent months, with the onshore rate rising about 1% over the past 30 days. This trend aligns with broader economic factors, including China’s large trade surplus, capital repatriation, and improved investor sentiment toward domestic assets. Analysts suggest that the PBOC is cautiously allowing the yuan to strengthen, consistent with its long-term goal of internationalizing the currency.

However, the central bank has also demonstrated flexibility in response to dollar strength. For instance, the PBOC recently weakened the yuan fixing for four consecutive sessions as the U.S. currency gained momentum. This indicates a balanced approach to managing exchange rate movements to support both domestic economic stability and external competitiveness.

The PBOC’s latest fixing of 6.9929 on July 11 marked a significant milestone, being the first time in nearly three years that the rate fell below 7. While the Bloomberg survey suggests a stronger yuan, the actual fixing will depend on the PBOC’s assessment of market conditions and broader macroeconomic priorities.