Fitch: Prospects for a potential U.S.-Iran deal are positive, but uncertainty remains elevated

Fitch Ratings has indicated that while prospects for a potential U.S.-Iran deal remain positive, significant uncertainty continues to affect credit and market dynamics. The ongoing conflict has led to elevated credit risks for European and U.S. issuers, with disruptions in global trade and energy markets compounding existing vulnerabilities. Despite a recent ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with shipping throughput down 96% compared to pre-conflict levels. This has led to prolonged delays in the recovery of maritime trade, with crude tankers expected to recover first, followed by container and dry cargo vessels.

Fitch has emphasized that while diplomatic efforts are ongoing, the economic and geopolitical risks remain high. The prolonged conflict has already led to a 7.2% contraction in Iran’s economy for FY2026/27, with fragile recovery prospects due to high inflation, sanctions, and infrastructure damage. For U.S. corporates, the extended conflict raises demand risks in global supply chains. Fitch’s analysis underscores the need for sustained de-escalation and a durable diplomatic resolution to stabilize markets and reduce credit risks.