The Fed's dovish stance outweighs the hawkish stance, and expectations for a rate cut have surged in recent days.

According to Mars Finance, on November 26th, investors are increasing their bets, expecting Federal Reserve policymakers to cut interest rates again at next month's meeting. This move dispels doubts from last week that a rate cut was unlikely and paves the way for a rise in US Treasury yields. New open interest in futures contracts linked to the Fed's benchmark interest rate has surged in the past three trading days, with the January contract setting new single-day volume records last week. Current market pricing indicates an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting, compared to only 30% a few days ago. This shift in interest rate expectations began last week with the delayed release of September employment data, which painted a mixed picture of the economy. Subsequently, New York Fed President Williams stated on Friday that he foresaw room for a rate cut "in the near term" given the weak labor market, further reinforcing this expectation. "There are serious divisions within the Fed, but it seems the doves have outnumbered the hawks," said Tracy Chen, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. (Jinshi)