Latest bitcoin bull turns bear, Fidelity director warns of year-long crypto winter

• Fidelity’s global macro director, Jurien Timmer says bitcoin’s October peak near $125,000 aligns closely with prior four year cycles in both price and time.
• Timmer suggests 2026 could be a “year off,” for bitcoin with key support seen between $65,000 and $75,000.
• Timmer contrasts bitcoin’s recent weakness with gold’s strong 2025 performance, noting gold is behaving as expected in a bull market by holding onto most of its gains during its latest correction.

Jurien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity and a long time bitcoin bull, has become one of the latest financial strategists to turn more bearish on bitcoin BTC$88,104.23, citing the asset’s four year cycle.

Bitcoin has historically followed a repeatable pattern, and from both an analog and time-based perspective, the current cycle appears to be aligning closely with prior ones, Timmer argues.

The October all-time high near $125,000, reached after roughly 145 months of cumulative rallying, fits well within the framework. Bitcoin bear markets, often referred to as winters, typically last about a year, Timmer says. As a result, he sees 2026 as a potential “year off” for bitcoin following the conclusion of the latest halving driven cycle.

“While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four year cycle halving phase, both in price and time," Timmer wrote on X.

"If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for bitcoin. Support is at $65,000 to $75,000.”

Timmer also highlights gold’s strong performance in 2025, contrasting it with bitcoin’s negative year, and does not expect a near term mean reversion between the two assets.

Gold is firmly in a bull market, up roughly 65% year to date, outperforming global money supply growth, Timmer noted. He adds that during the recent correction, gold has held onto most of its gains, which he views as characteristic behavior of a bull market.

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• Citigroup's base case for bitcoin (BTC) is a rise to $143,000 in 12 months.
• Analysts highlight $70,000 as key support, with the potential for a sharp rise due to revived ETF demand and positive market forecasts.
• The bear case sees bitcoin falling to $78,500 amid a global recession, while the bull case predicts a rise to $189,000 due to increased investor demand.

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