JPMorgan says bitcoin's lower volatility relative to gold might make it 'more attractive' in long term

• Bitcoin has decoupled from traditional safe havens like gold and silver, with the cryptocurrency weakening into 2026 even as gold surged more than 60% in 2025.
• JPMorgan analysts say the recent sell-off in digital assets, including bitcoin and ether ETFs, reflects fading appeal as a hedge and broad negative sentiment among both institutional and retail investors.
• Despite the downturn, JPMorgan argues that bitcoin’s relatively low volatility versus gold underscores its long-term potential as a safe-haven asset, even though a volatility-adjusted price near $266,000 is seen as unrealistic in the near term.

Despite its long-standing reputation as “digital gold,” bitcoin has sharply diverged from traditional safe havens like gold and silver, but that might not be a bad thing for the digital asset's future, according to JPMorgan analysts.

Gold surged more than 60% in 2025 on sustained central bank buying and flight-to-safety demand, while bitcoin has struggled into 2026, posting repeated monthly declines and underperforming major risk assets. JPMorgan’s report suggests this widening gap reflects bitcoin’s fading appeal as a hedge against market turmoil.

Digital assets "came under further pressure over the past week as risk assets and in particular tech came under pressure and as gold and silver, the other perceived hedges to a catastrophic scenario, saw a sharp correction," analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

This selloff has also spilled over into spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), signaling broad-based negative sentiment among institutional and retail investors, according to JPMorgan analysts. The bearish sentiment has also affected the stablecoin supply, which has contracted, the note said.

'Catastrophic scenario'

However, JPMorgan still sees a longer-term case for bitcoin.

The report said gold has outperformed bitcoin since last October, but with sharply higher volatility, which makes bitcoin "even more attractive compared to gold."

In theory, if bitcoin were to match the recent volatility seen in gold, the price of the digital asset would have to rise to near $266,000 to match the investments being made in gold, which, the analysts agree, is unlikely. What this low volatility does for bitcoin is that it highlights bitcoin's future potential as a safe haven.

"This $266k volatility-adjusted comparison to gold is in our opinion an unrealistic target for this year, but it shows the upside potential over the long term once negative sentiment is reversed and once bitcoin is again perceived equally attractive to gold as a potential hedge to a catastrophic scenario," the analysts wrote.

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