US EIA says it does not expect Strait of Hormuz traffic to ramp up to pre-Iran war level until early 2027

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-Iran war levels until early 2027, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. The Strait, a critical global oil chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, remains a focal point of energy security concerns due to ongoing regional tensions. In 2024, the strait accounted for approximately 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and total global seaborne oil trade.

The EIA estimates that global oil inventories are declining faster than previously expected, with an average reduction of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026. This is largely attributed to production disruptions in the Middle East, including a 10.5 million barrels per day of crude oil production shut in by key Gulf producers in April. The agency also notes that Iran’s output is likely to decrease due to U.S. blockades limiting its export capabilities.

Despite a gradual resumption of shipping through the strait in June 2026, the EIA anticipates that full recovery of prewar shipment levels will take until early 2027. This prolonged disruption is expected to have a dampening effect on global oil demand, particularly in Asia, which relies heavily on crude oil from the region. The EIA forecasts global demand growth of 200,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from earlier projections of 600,000 barrels per day.