Bitwise Advisor: Bitcoin market structure is unfavorable for upward movement; current implied volatility is suppressed.
TL;DR
Bitwise advisor Jeff Park notes Bitcoin's market structure is unfavorable for price increases due to selling by OG holders and slowing ETF/DAT demand. A breakout requires sustained higher implied volatility, which has dropped from 63% to 44% recently.
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PANews reported on December 14th that Jeff Park, an advisor at Bitwise, stated in an article on the X platform, "The current market structure is fundamentally unfavorable for a substantial price increase in Bitcoin. This is because, on the one hand, Bitcoin OG holders continue to sell, while on the other hand, demand from ETFs and DAT is slowing down. For Bitcoin to break out of its current pattern, it must return to significantly higher implied volatility levels in a sustained manner, especially upward volatility. In November, I stated 'Volatility or death,' and shared the first unusual breakout signal at that time, finally seeing volatility begin to rise, rekindling some hope. However, unfortunately, implied volatility has been completely suppressed again in the past two weeks. From a high of 63% in late November, it has now fallen back to 44%."