BTC, Nasdaq Futures Drop as Oracle Earnings Revive AI Bubble Fears

AI Summary4 min read

TL;DR

Bitcoin fell below $90,000 as traders sold on Fed rate cut news, while Oracle's earnings miss and debt-fueled AI spending sparked fears of an AI bubble, pressuring risk assets like Nasdaq futures.

Key Takeaways

•Bitcoin dropped below $90,000 as traders treated the Fed's rate cut as a 'sell the news' event, unwinding prior optimism.
•Oracle shares fell over 10% due to weak earnings and increased debt, renewing concerns about AI infrastructure spending and delayed cash flows.
•Credit market signals, such as Oracle's rising credit default swaps, indicate a repricing of risk rather than immediate distress, with a 9% cumulative default probability over 5 years.
•Risk assets, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, faced pressure despite the Fed's rate cut, with low liquidity exacerbating declines in altcoins like ETHFI and ADA.
•The broader market sentiment turned bearish, with Nasdaq futures down and the altcoin season index slumping, highlighting ongoing volatility in crypto and tech sectors.

What to know:

Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 as traders treated the Fed’s rate cut as a sell the news event, unwinding optimism that had been priced in ahead of the decision.
Oracle shares fall 12% on earnings and capex guidance, yet credit market signals suggest a repricing of risk rather than distress.

Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 as traders treated the Fed’s rate cut as a sell the news event, unwinding optimism that had been priced in ahead of the decision.
Oracle shares fall 12% on earnings and capex guidance, yet credit market signals suggest a repricing of risk rather than distress.

Risk assets are under pressure Thursday despite the Fed's rate cut, with Oracle's earnings miss piling on alongside the central bank's hawkish guidance.

Bitcoin BTC$90,193.08, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, is trading near $90,000, representing a 2.8% drop over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. Futures tied to Wall Street's tech heavy index, Nasdaq, are down 0.80%.

Late Wednesday, Oracle published its fiscal second quarter 2026 earnings (Q2 FY26), covering the period ended Nov. 30, 2025. Total revenue came in slightly below consensus, with legacy software revenue down and new license sales particularly weak.

This has once again highlighted the gap between the debt-fueled AI infrastructure spending spree, the promised revenue and the reality of delayed cash flows hitting the coffers.

The Financial Times reported that Oracle’s earnings were overshadowed by a $15 billion jump in planned data centre spending and a revenue miss, while its long-term debt increased to $99.6 billion, a jump of 25% from one-year ago. The cloud infrastructure revenue came in at $4.1 billion, below expectations, relying further on debt expansion.

The report quoted Morgan Stanley as forecasting a surge in Oracle's net debt to about $290 billion by 2028.

Shares on Oracle fell over 10% in after market hours, dragging down the AI stocks and offering bearish cues to the crypto market. The price swoon renewed social media focus on Oracle's five-year credit default, a type of an insurance contracts that reflects perceived default risk.

It has jumped to the highest since 2022. The surge reflects the material repricing of risk, according to the Special Situations newsletter.

"Historically, ORCL CDS traded around 20–40 bps, so 117 bps represents a material repricing of risk, but not a distressed profile," the newsletter service said on X.

"Oracle 5Y CDS graph looks exciting $ORCL until you run the math and realize that it is only pricing in 1.93% probability of default per year and a 9% 5 year cumulative probability of default," it added.

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Spot, stablecoin, DeFi and NFT volumes slumped around 20% month-on-month in November as volatility and selling froze trading activity, according to JPMorgan.
U.S. bitcoin spot ETFs saw $3.4 billion in net outflows and ether ETPs had their worst month on record, the report said.
Total crypto market cap fell 17% last month to $3 trillion, with bitcoin down 17% and ether down 22%.

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