Cocoa Futures Swing as Market Watches West Africa Weather

Cocoa futures fluctuated as traders watch for the impact of West Africa’s Harmattan season on output from top producers.

Cocoa prices in New York and London fell as much as 4% on Friday before paring most of the loss. Still, the move adds to a brutal 2025, with New York futures down 48% and London contracts off more than 50% on anticipation of improved harvests and sluggish demand.

The impact of the dry and dusty Harmattan winds on the region has so far been moderate.

Improved weather in Ivory Coast is expected to boost the February-March harvest as farmers report larger and healthier pods compared with the same period last year, said Nisha Kumari, an analyst with Tropical General Investments Group. “This supports expectations of a partial recovery in global cocoa supply,” she said.

Cocoa production in Ghana is expected to increase in 2025-26 compared with a year earlier, Kumari said adding that the recovery reflects improved farm conditions and better crop management.

Isolated to scattered showers occurred over southeastern Ivory Coast and southern Ghana on Tuesday, weather forecaster Vaisala said on Dec. 31 adding that similar weather was expected going forward.

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