Dragonfly managing partner lays out his 2026 crypto predictions

• Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi says 2026 will deliver both upside and downside surprises across crypto markets.
• He expects established chains and infrastructure to outperform newer, heavily marketed platforms.
• Qureshi highlights two segments he believes could see exceptionally rapid expansion next year.

Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at crypto-focused venture firm Dragonfly, says 2026 is shaping up to be a year when crypto’s long-running trends assert themselves rather than reset, even if markets deliver sharp moves in both directions.

In a Dec. 29 post on X, Qureshi outlined a wide-ranging outlook that reflects a broader investor reassessment after several volatile cycles, with durability, distribution and real-world usage taking precedence over rapid experimentation.

Markets and blockchains

Qureshi expects bitcoin to finish 2026 above $150,000, while accounting for a smaller share of the overall crypto market. He framed that combination as a sign that activity elsewhere could expand without displacing bitcoin’s role as the sector’s anchor asset.

He was more skeptical about newer, fintech-branded blockchains, arguing that recent enthusiasm is unlikely to translate into sustained usage. In his view, key indicators such as wallet engagement, stablecoin flows and tokenized asset adoption will fall short of expectations.

Instead, Qureshi expects developer activity to remain concentrated on infrastructure that prioritizes neutrality and composability. Within that framework, he sees Ethereum and Solana continuing to outperform relative to expectations, even as newer networks compete for attention.

He also anticipates deeper corporate involvement, particularly in the payments and financial services sectors. Qureshi predicts that at least one major technology company will either launch or acquire a crypto wallet, while additional Fortune 100 firms deploy blockchain systems tied to banking and fintech operations. He highlighted Avalanche and several rollup frameworks as platforms positioned to benefit from that trend.

Market structure and DeFi

In decentralized finance, Qureshi expects market structure to evolve toward consolidation rather than fragmentation. He predicts that a small number of dominant venues will capture the majority of on-chain perpetual futures trading, with smaller platforms competing over the shrinking remainder.

He also sees product innovation reshaping trading behavior, particularly through derivatives formats and liquidity mechanisms that emphasize negotiated execution over open order books. At the same time, he warned that rising sophistication could bring reputational risks, predicting that at least one insider trading controversy linked to DeFi would draw mainstream scrutiny.

Payments and stablecoins

Qureshi’s strongest conviction centers on payments infrastructure. He expects stablecoin supply to expand sharply in 2026, while remaining overwhelmingly dollar-denominated, even as individual issuers compete for market share.

Rather than focusing solely on issuance, he emphasized distribution, arguing that new payment rails will accelerate adoption far more quickly than previous cycles. In his view, these channels will play a central role in bringing stablecoins into everyday use, particularly in emerging markets.

Regulation and politics

On the policy front, Qureshi expects U.S. lawmakers to advance a crypto market structure bill in 2026 following extensive negotiation. While he sees progress as likely, he cautioned that the final outcome could leave parts of the industry dissatisfied.

He also predicted heightened political scrutiny tied to crypto ventures connected to U.S. politics, warning that congressional investigations could expose questionable dealmaking and create reputational fallout for participants.

Prediction markets, AI and security

Qureshi expects prediction markets to expand rapidly as cultural acceptance grows, even as legal uncertainty persists. He anticipates that a small number of consumer-facing platforms will garner the most attention, while the majority of copycat efforts will fail to gain traction.

In artificial intelligence (AI), Qureshi argued crypto’s near-term gains will remain concentrated in developer tooling and security rather than consumer automation. He expects smaller teams to ship increasingly complex products using AI-driven workflows, while cybersecurity improves through automated monitoring, even as attack attempts continue.

Qureshi disclosed that he invests in many of the assets mentioned in the post.

2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns.

This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026.

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