Peru economy to grow 3.5% in January y/y: Armas

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCR) has projected that the Peruvian economy will grow approximately 3.5% in the third quarter of 2024 (July–September), according to Adrián Armas, head of Economic Studies at the BCR. This projection builds on preliminary indicators suggesting GDP growth of around 4% in July, though Armas emphasized that monthly data remains volatile and should be interpreted cautiously according to the BCR's analysis. Official GDP figures for July will be released by the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) on September 15, with the BCR's updated macroeconomic forecasts following on September 20 via its Inflation Report as reported by the BCR.

Business confidence in Peru has remained optimistic for four consecutive months, with five of the first eight months of 2024 falling within the optimistic range, according to BCR surveys. Globally, moderate growth is anticipated amid easing inflationary pressures, though financial market volatility and restrictive international conditions persist as risks as noted in economic analysis.

Longer-term projections from BBVA Research suggest Peru's economy will expand 3.1% in 2025, supported by stronger global demand and increased investment in mining and infrastructure projects, though growth is expected to moderate to 2.7% in 2026 according to BBVA Research. The BCR is nearing the completion of its monetary normalization cycle, with a potential 25-basis-point rate cut anticipated to bring the policy rate to 4.50% as projected by BBVA Research.

Inflation is projected to remain subdued, averaging 2.5% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, reflecting stable expectations and limited demand pressures according to economic forecasts. The sol's trajectory remains influenced by cyclical and structural factors, with expectations of a range between 3.65–3.75 soles per dollar by year-end 2025 as projected by BBVA Research.