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What next for XRP as volatility sinks to 2024 lows

AI Summary3 min read

TL;DR

XRP is consolidating around $1.42 with volatility at 2024 lows, suggesting the downtrend may be exhausting. A compression setup could lead to a breakout toward $1.50-$1.62 if $1.44 resistance is reclaimed, with $1.39 as key support.

Key Takeaways

  • •XRP volatility has dropped to levels last seen before a major 2024 rally, indicating potential exhaustion of the current downtrend.
  • •Technical analysis shows a compression setup with $1.39 as key support and $1.44 as near-term resistance; reclaiming $1.44 could trigger a move toward $1.50-$1.62.
  • •The next breakout's timing and direction depend on how long this low-volatility base-building phase persists, with parallels drawn to earlier cycle structures like 2017.
  • •Recent price action includes a test of $1.39 support on high volume and a stalled recovery near $1.44, with declining volume suggesting compression rather than distribution.
  • •If $1.39 support breaks, downside risk shifts toward $1.35, highlighting the importance of monitoring these key levels for future price movements.
(CoinDesk Data)

What to know:

  • XRP is consolidating around $1.42 as volatility falls to levels last seen before a major 2024 rally, prompting speculation that the current downtrend may be nearing exhaustion.
  • Technical traders see a compression setup, with $1.39 as key support and $1.44 as near-term resistance that could open a move toward $1.50 to $1.62 if reclaimed.
  • With volatility near prior cycle lows, analysts say the timing and direction of the next breakout will likely hinge on how long this low-volatility base-building phase can persist.
  • XRP is consolidating around $1.42 as volatility falls to levels last seen before a major 2024 rally, prompting speculation that the current downtrend may be nearing exhaustion.
  • Technical traders see a compression setup, with $1.39 as key support and $1.44 as near-term resistance that could open a move toward $1.50 to $1.62 if reclaimed.
  • With volatility near prior cycle lows, analysts say the timing and direction of the next breakout will likely hinge on how long this low-volatility base-building phase can persist.

XRP held steady near $1.42 as volatility dropped to levels last seen before a major 2024 rally, raising questions about whether the downtrend is exhausting.

News Background

  • XRP has declined roughly 61% from its all-time high during the current stretch of market turbulence, but recent price action suggests the selloff may be slowing. Losses have moderated into consolidation, with small gains across shorter timeframes replacing sharp directional moves.
  • Notably, XRP’s historical volatility has fallen to 96, matching levels last seen in June 2024 — a period that marked the bottom of a prior downtrend before a rally into November.
  • The compression has fueled speculation that XRP may be entering a similar base-building phase.
  • Some analysts point to parallels with earlier cycle structures, including the extended consolidation that preceded the 2017 breakout.

Price Action Summary

  • XRP slipped 0.14% to $1.42
  • Price tested and held support near $1.39
  • Volume surged nearly 94% above average during the breakdown
  • Recovery stalled near $1.428–$1.431 resistance

Technical Analysis

  • The session’s key moment came when XRP tested $1.3915 on heavy volume before stabilizing. While the bounce completed a 38.2% retracement, momentum faded as price approached $1.44, the daily pivot and near-term ceiling.
  • Structure remains cautious below $1.44–$1.45, but the successful defense of $1.39 suggests sellers are losing urgency. Declining volume during consolidation points to compression rather than fresh distribution.

What traders say is next?

  • Traders view this as a compression setup.
  • If XRP reclaims $1.44, it opens room toward $1.50 and potentially $1.62.
    If $1.39 breaks, downside risk shifts toward $1.35.
  • With volatility near prior cycle lows, the next decisive move may be less about direction now — and more about how long this compression can hold before expansion resumes.
  • Bitcoin wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC have increased their share of supply to the highest since mid-2024 even as the price holds around the mid-$60,000s.
  • Larger holders with 10 to 10,000 bitcoins — the whales and sharks that typically drive major moves — have reduced their positions since the October peak.
  • The divergence supports choppy, fragile price action because retail demand alone cannot sustain rallies when big wallets are distributing into every recovery.

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