QCP Capital: Fed Policy Flattens, AI Investment and Cryptocurrency Face Structural Challenges
TL;DR
QCP Capital notes the market ends the year with fragile confidence amid Fed's mixed signals, flattening rates. AI investment faces monetization risks, potentially affecting stocks by 2026, while crypto faces pressure from index reviews and fund outflows.
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ChainCatcher reports that QCP Capital stated on its official channel that the market is concluding the year in a fragile balance of confidence and caution. The Federal Reserve's dovish rate cuts were interspersed with hawkish leanings, signaling support for the labor market while firmly focusing on inflation. The dot plot suggests a flattening interest rate path, and the market is currently pricing in approximately two to three rate cuts next year.
The stock market remains a key macroeconomic swing factor. Funds continue to flow into the AI infrastructure sector, but its monetization is lagging. If revenue growth fails to keep pace with investment, the risks will spread from the AI sector, potentially triggering a broader stock market revaluation in 2026.
The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure as Morgan Stanley Capital International reviews the eligibility of digital asset treasury management firms for index inclusion. This could trigger passive fund outflows of up to $2.8 billion.