Fear and Greed Index in Fear 30% of the Past Year, Bitcoin Back in Extreme Fear

• Over the past year, fear or extreme fear has accounted for more than 30% of all readings on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
• The index currently stands at 17, firmly within the extreme fear section.
• With bitcoin currently trading nearly 30% below its all time high, investor caution remains elevated.

As bitcoin BTC$87,673.80 struggles to hold above $90,000, market sentiment has once again slipped into extreme fear.

Over the past year, fear or extreme fear has accounted for more than 30% of all readings on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. The index currently stands at 17, firmly within the extreme fear section.

Fear has dominated sentiment since the October liquidation crash more than two months ago, as bitcoin dropped 36% from its October all-time high. While the cryptocurrency market has yet to stage a meaningful recovery. With bitcoin currently trading nearly 30% below its all-time high, investor caution remains elevated.

A similar disconnect is occurring in U.S. equities. Sentiment currently sits at 42, which signals fear, according to the CNN Fear and Greed Index, even as the S&P 500 trades around 6,827, just a few percentage points below its all-time high.

Across both U.S. equities and cryptocurrencies, fear continues to dominate investor psychology.

Bitcoin entered a death cross in November, a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200 day moving average. In this instance, the death cross coincided with a local bottom near $80,000 on Nov. 21. Notably, every death cross during the current market cycle since 2023 has marked a significant local bottom, reinforcing its relevance as a contrarian indicator in this cycle.

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• Citizens said prediction markets are shifting asset class from niche to emerging.
• The bank argued that event contracts fix a key flaw in traditional finance by letting investors trade directly on inflation, elections, Fed moves and regulation.
• While regulation and liquidity are hurdles, prediction markets are likely to evolve from retail-heavy speculation into a mainstream hedging and information tool that could reach multitrillion-dollar annual scale, the report said.

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