QCP: The current US economy is closer to the late stage of a cycle than a recession; this week's data will determine the future direction of Bitcoin.

Mars Finance reported on November 19th that QCP released its daily market observation, stating that Bitcoin continued its decline this week, briefly falling below the key $90,000 mark. This was due to tightening market expectations for interest rate hikes and continued outflows from ETFs, which dampened market sentiment. Thin liquidity further amplified this decline, demonstrating Bitcoin's increasing sensitivity to changes in the macroeconomic environment. This pullback occurred against the backdrop of a rapid repricing of expectations from the Federal Reserve—the market adjusted from a near-certain December rate cut to a more balanced probability. This put pressure on interest rate-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, while the stock market remained relatively stable due to robust corporate earnings, particularly strong profits reported by large technology (hyperscalers) and record AI-driven capital expenditures. As the US government reopens, official data is being released, providing the market with necessary insights into the momentum of economic fundamentals. This week, the market is highly focused on labor market data and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which now incorporates the latest job openings data. This information will help determine whether labor market tightness or inflation will dominate the Fed's policy response in 2026. Beneath the surface, the US economy continues to exhibit a K-shaped divergence: high-income households are maintaining resilient spending, while low-income groups are facing increasing pressure. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated a cautious stance, noting that a December rate cut is "not certain." Overall, current economic conditions are closer to the late stage of a cycle than a recession. While fiscal constraints and labor market divergence pose ongoing risks, robust household balance sheets and resilient corporate capital spending still provide a buffer against downside. This week's data will determine whether Bitcoin's pullback is a temporary position adjustment or the beginning of a broader decline in risk appetite.