Coinbase 2026 Outlook: DAT and Token Economics to Enter 2.0 Model, Market Trading Volume Predicted to Expand Further
TL;DR
Coinbase's 2026 outlook predicts a shift to a 'DAT 2.0' model focusing on professional blockchain services and sustainable token economics. Technologies like ZKP and FHE will advance, with prediction market trading volume expanding due to tax policy changes. Stablecoin market cap is expected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2028.
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On January 2nd, David Duong, Head of Investment Research at Coinbase, stated in Coinbase's "2026 Market Outlook Report":
The US economy remains resilient, with rising labor productivity mitigating the impact of slower economic growth. Therefore, Coinbase believes the cryptocurrency market landscape in the first half of 2026 will be closer to "1996" than "1999" (meaning an optimistic outlook for next year), but also acknowledges significant market uncertainty.
A clearer global framework will continue to transform institutional practices in strategy, risk, and compliance in 2026. DAT expanded its buyer base in 2025, but recent valuation-driven consolidation has emerged. A "DAT 2.0" model is expected in 2026, where future versions will move beyond simple asset accumulation and focus on the professional trading, storage, and procurement of sovereign blockchain space, viewing it as a key commodity in the digital economy.
As policies become clearer, token holders' economic interests are linked to platform usage, and protocols are moving towards value creation—including mechanisms such as fee sharing, buybacks, and "buy-and-burn." Coinbase believes this marks an emerging shift from purely narrative-driven testing models to sustainable, revenue-linked models.
Technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) and fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) are expected to continue to develop, and the use of on-chain privacy will also increase significantly with the widespread adoption of cryptographic infrastructure.
Prediction market trading volume is expected to expand further in 2026, as changes in US tax policy may prompt users to shift to these derivatives-based markets. While market fragmentation may pose a risk, Coinbase believes that prediction market aggregators are poised to become the dominant interface layer, with weekly trading volumes potentially reaching billions of dollars.
By the end of 2028, the total market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion. New application scenarios are anticipated to emerge in areas such as cross-border transaction settlement, remittances, and payroll platforms.