Market forecasts indicate that Warsh is the frontrunner for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, while Hassett is significantly lagging behind.
TL;DR
Market data shows Kevin Warsh's probability of becoming Fed Chair has surged to over 60%, making him the clear frontrunner, while Kevin Hassett's chances have dropped to 15%. Trump's comments suggest he may be considering other candidates, shifting expectations from a two-way race to Warsh leading alone.
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According to data from the Odaily market Polymarket, Hassett's probability of being nominated for the Fed Chair has dropped to 15%, roughly the same as Federal Reserve Governor Waller, while Kevin Warsh's probability has risen to over 60%, making him the frontrunner and far ahead of other candidates. Today, when Trump spoke about Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, he said, "We'll see if he stays in his current position." This statement suggests that Trump may have someone else in mind for the Fed Chair nomination, and market expectations for the Fed Chair nomination have shifted from a two-way race between Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh to Warsh leading alone. It's worth noting that Hassett himself commented on this before Trump's speech today, saying, "Wash and Rieder would also be great Fed Chairs." Perhaps Hassett already knew Trump's final choice.