From Lockstep to Lag, Bitcoin Poised to Catch Up With Small Cap Highs

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BTCBTC$92,388.57◢2.51%JUPJUP$0.2147◢0.05%KASKAS$0.04715◢1.89%

• The Russell 2000 index has pushed to new all time highs alongside strength across U.S. equities and metals, while bitcoin remains 27% below its peak, marking a rare divergence after years of moving in sync.
• With small-cap stocks highly sensitive to falling interest rates and 2026 earning-per-share growth expectations near 49%, according to Goldman Sachs, improving macroeconomic conditions could realign bitcoin and crypto with small-cap strength.
• The Federal Reserve starts Treasury bill purchases today with an initial $8.2 billion operation, the first step in a $40 billion reserve management program running until April.

For the first time in five years, the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) is hitting record highs while bitcoin BTC$92,388.57, which usually tops in tandem, is out of sync and remains 27% below October's record. History suggests the largest cryptocurrency and cryptocurrencies more broadly are likely to catch up.

The Russell 2000, a gauge of U.S. small-cap equities, printed a record on Thursday, as did measures for bigger companies like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 Index. The Nasdaq 100 is just below its all-time high and metals, led by silver, are also hitting peaks.

Since 2020, new highs in the Russell 2000 have typically coincided with new highs in bitcoin BTC$92,388.57. This alignment was evident in November 2021, when bitcoin peaked at $69,000. It appeared again in early November 2024, when bitcoin moved above $90,000, and again in mid October when it surged to $126,000. Both bottomed on Nov. 21.

Milk Road Macro noted on X that smaller, more risky companies are more sensitive to interest-rate changes than large megacap stocks. This sensitivity is particularly important following the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis-point reduction on Wednesday. Expectations for 2026 Russell 2000 earnings-per-share growth are exceptionally strong at around 49%, according to Goldman Sachs.

Meantime, another 50 basis points-worth of rate cuts are currently priced into the market for the next 12 months, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. Those would provide a further boost for riskier assets, like cryptocurrencies.

Fed Starts Treasury Bill Buying

Another source of liquidity is the start of the Fed's Treasury-bill purchase program. That begins later Friday, according to ZeroHedge, starting with $8.2 billion as part of its reserve management program.

The buying is part of a broader $40 billion Treasury bill purchase plan running from Dec. 12 alongside reinvestment of maturing agency securities, signaling a renewed liquidity injection into money markets.

• As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
• GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
• Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.

• The XRP Ledger released version 3.0.0 of its server software, rippled, focusing on amendments, bug fixes and improving accounting accuracy and protocol extensibility.
• Operators must upgrade to the new version to maintain network compatibility because the update addresses ledger inconsistencies and prepares for future upgrades.
• Key changes include fixing token escrow accounting errors, enhancing consensus stall detection and tightening security measures, which are crucial for XRPL's expansion into tokenization and DeFi.

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