Analysis: A recovery in the crypto market in 2026 requires ETF expansion, large-cap market leadership, or a return of retail investor attention.

PANews reported on January 19th that, according to Wintermute analysis, the traditional "four-year cycle" of the crypto market has become ineffective, and the market performance in 2025 signifies the industry's shift from speculation to a more mature asset class. The market in 2025 is characterized by extreme concentration. Bitcoin ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) constitute a "capital siege," providing sustained demand for large-cap assets, but capital has not naturally rotated to the broader market. Over-the-counter trading data shows that the wealth transmission effect from Bitcoin to Ethereum, then to blue chips and Altcoin, has significantly weakened in 2025. The average rebound cycle for Altcoin has shortened from 60 days in 2024 to 20 days.

The report points out that for the market to break through concentration in 2026, at least one of the following three conditions needs to be met: 1. ETFs and DAT expand their investment scope: Currently, new liquidity is still constrained by institutional channels, and their investable scope needs to be expanded. ETF applications for SOL and XRP have shown early signs of this. 2. Strong rise in large-cap assets: A strong rise in Bitcoin or Ethereum could generate a wealth spillover effect, driving the broader market. 3. Return of retail investor attention: Retail investor attention shifts back from the currently hot stock market themes such as AI and rare earths to the crypto space, bringing new funds and stablecoin minting. The market trend in 2026 will depend on whether the above catalysts can truly channel liquidity beyond at least a few large-cap assets.