《Bitunix Weekly Market Brief》｜Rising Macro Pressure Pushes Markets Back Toward Risk Aversion
TL;DR
Rising macro pressure from hawkish Fed signals and delayed data pushed markets toward risk aversion, causing sell-offs in equities and crypto. Bitcoin fell below $95,000, with key support at 94,158. Next week's data releases and Fed speeches will dictate rate-cut expectations and market direction.
Key Takeaways
- •Hawkish Fed signals and a data vacuum triggered global sell-offs, increasing defensive positioning in assets like Treasuries and crypto.
- •Bitcoin dropped below $95,000, with technical supports at 94,158, 89,603, and 85,255, and resistance at 100,266.
- •Upcoming U.S. data (e.g., Nonfarm Payrolls) and Fed speeches will influence rate-cut bets, with scenarios ranging from rebounds to continued declines.
- •Crypto markets saw over $190 billion in liquidations, reducing leverage and shifting risk appetite to caution amid the deleveraging cycle.
- •Weak economic data could ease risk aversion and spark rebounds in risk assets, with crypto as a potential liquidity beneficiary.
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Market Focus This Week
The brief relief brought by the U.S. government’s temporary funding extension — now lasting until January 30, 2026 — quickly faded as delayed economic data are set to return, forcing markets to confront a renewed fundamental vacuum. Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve triggered a wave of global sell-offs, making this the dominant market narrative of the week. U.S. equities saw heightened volatility across growth sectors, while crypto assets faced intensified selling pressure. Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $95,000, erasing gains made after the October rally.
Defensive positioning increased across the board: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged up to 4.15%, while the Dollar Index failed to break above 100, underscoring market hesitation amid data scarcity. In crypto, cascading liquidations extended the deleveraging cycle that began on October 10, with over $190 billion in total liquidations to date. ETF and futures positions contracted, leverage cooled, and risk appetite shifted back toward caution.
Market Outlook for Next Week
The upcoming week will be defined by the return of delayed U.S. macro data. A dense series of reports — including Nonfarm Payrolls, Factory Orders, Construction Spending, and Real Income — will be released together, serving as key catalysts for December rate-cut expectations.
In parallel, a series of Fed officials (Williams, Kashkari, Goolsbee, and Logan) will deliver speeches that could further sway interest-rate sentiment.
🔹 Three Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Weak Data → Rate-cut bets rise → Treasury rally resumes → Gold and Bitcoin rebound.
2️⃣ Strong Data → Repricing continues, tech stocks retreat → Crypto maintains downward bias.
3️⃣ Mixed Data → Sideways volatility → Dollar oscillates between 99–100 range.
Crypto Market Technicals
Bitcoin is currently retesting its prior high range, showing signs of post-liquidity sweep correction on the monthly chart.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 0.5 Fibonacci (100,266) — the month’s upper shadow reflects heavy supply.
Current price hovering above 95,000–96,000 range gap.
Structural supports:
• 0.618: 94,158 (first liquidity fill zone)
• 0.705: 89,603
• 0.79: 85,255 (major support — a break below shifts bias bearish)
Potential Paths:
Base Case: Range-bound consolidation within 94,000–96,000, awaiting macro data to reset pricing before retesting 100,000–105,000.
Bearish Case: Break below 94,000, targeting 89,600 (0.705); a breach opens deeper monthly correction.
Bullish Case: Weak U.S. data + stronger rate-cut outlook → reclaim 100,266, then challenge 110,000+ liquidity zone.
Bitunix Analyst’s View:
The market’s key issue is not beta, but pricing disorder amid macro data vacuum. BTC remains in a structural retest phase on the monthly chart. Until major U.S. data return, directional clarity will remain elusive.
If next week’s data confirm economic weakness, it may ease risk aversion and trigger the next rebound cycle across risk assets, with crypto positioned as a leading liquidity beneficiary.