Citigroup: December nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 75,000, and the unemployment rate will rise to 4.7%.
TL;DR
Citigroup economists caution about seasonal adjustments affecting recent jobless claims data, but expect December nonfarm payrolls to increase by 75,000 and the unemployment rate to rise to 4.7%.
[Citi: December Non-Farm Payrolls Expected to Increase by 75,000, Unemployment Rate to Rise to 4.7%] According to Mars Finance, on December 31st, Citi economists stated that a cautious approach should be taken to the expected decline in jobless claims before and after the holidays. During the Christmas week, jobless claims fell from 215,000 to 199,000, compared to forecasts of 220,000. Citi stated, "The seasonal adjustment issue during this year's holiday week appears to be much more pronounced than in previous years, and more reliable initial jobless claims data signals may not emerge until later in January." However, data shows that layoffs remain low, and Citi expects December non-farm payrolls to increase by 75,000, with the data to be released next week. Citi also stated, "But we still expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.7%, partly due to a renewed increase in the labor force participation rate." (Jinshi)