Largest bitcoin ETF inflow in three months signals institutional bid is back

• U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $697.2 million in inflows on Monday, the largest since Oct. 7.
• U.S. ETFs have recorded approximately $1.2 billion in net inflows across the first two trading days of 2026.
• Extended ETF outflow periods have historically aligned with local market bottoms, with recent flows flipping back into positive territory alongside a recovering Coinbase premium, suggesting capitulation conditions are fading.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. registered their largest daily inflows since Oct. 7 at $697.2 million on Monday, according to Farside data.

U.S. ETFs have recorded approximately $1.2 billion in net inflows across the first two trading days of 2026, coinciding with bitcoin BTC$93,106.80 rising nearly 7% from $87,000 at the start of the year to slightly under $94,000.

Since spot bitcoin ETFs first listed in the U.S. in January 2024, extended periods of outflows have typically aligned with local market bottoms, based on a 30-day moving average, according to Glassnode data.

Notable examples include August 2024 during the yen carry trade unwind, when bitcoin fell to roughly $49,000, and April 2025 amid the tariff tantrum, which marked a local low near $76,000.

Outflows began in October 2025 but are now flipping back into positive territory. This shift is further supported by the Coinbase premium index, which has climbed back toward slightly negative levels, indicating conditions are no longer consistent with capitulation.

• KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
• This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
• Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
• Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
• Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.

• Strategy (MSTR) shares rose 6% in after-hours trading after MSCI's decision on digital asset treasury companies.
• MSCI stated that distinguishing between investment companies and those holding digital assets requires further research.
• The current index treatment for companies with digital assets making up 50% or more of their total assets will remain unchanged.

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