Chile government estimates 2026 average copper price at $5.90/lb - report

Chile's government has estimated that the average copper price for 2026 will reach $5.90 per pound, according to recent reports. This forecast aligns with broader market expectations of continued elevated prices driven by strong global demand and constrained supply. The Chilean copper commission, Cochilco, has also raised its 2026 price forecast to $5.55 per pound, citing firm demand from the energy transition, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence sectors.

The global copper market is navigating a complex landscape of structural and short-term pressures. Record-high prices, which briefly exceeded $14,500 per tonne in January 2026, have been influenced by supply disruptions at major mines, US tariff uncertainties, and a slowdown in new mine development. Meanwhile, the US copper market has experienced significant volatility, with a widening premium for CME copper over LME copper and record inventory levels in US warehouses.

Looking ahead, analysts from major financial institutions have offered a range of forecasts for 2026. Goldman Sachs expects an average price of $5.17 per pound, while Citigroup anticipates prices above $5.90 per pound by the second quarter of 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has highlighted the risk of a 30% supply deficit by 2035 due to challenges in expanding copper production, including declining ore grades and long lead times for new projects.

Despite these bullish signals, some market participants remain cautious. Ample near-term inventories, particularly in the US, and potential global economic slowdowns could temper price gains. Additionally, the midstream sector, particularly smelters, faces significant challenges as treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) have fallen to record lows, driven by overcapacity in China.

As the global economy continues to electrify and AI-driven demand grows, the copper market remains in a state of flux. Policymakers and industry stakeholders are closely monitoring developments to ensure supply chain resilience and mitigate strategic risks associated with market concentration.