Vietnam deputy finance minister: 1H trade deficit expected at about $15bln
Vietnam is projected to record a trade deficit of approximately $15 billion in the first half of 2026, according to a deputy finance minister, reflecting a continuation of recent trade trends. This forecast aligns with the country’s trade performance in January and February 2026, during which deficits of $1.78 billion and $0.66 billion, respectively. The deficit marks the second consecutive month of negative trade balances and the largest gap since February 2022.
The widening trade gap is attributed to a slower growth in exports compared to imports. In January 2026, Vietnam’s exports rose 29.7% year-on-year to $43.19 billion, while imports surged 49.2% to $44.97 billion. Similarly, in December 2025, exports increased by 23.8% to $44.03 billion, while imports jumped 27.7% to $44.69 billion. These figures highlight the persistent pressure on Vietnam’s trade balance as demand for imported production materials continues to outpace export growth.
For the full year of 2025, Vietnam maintained a cumulative trade surplus of $20.03 billion, with exports and imports rising by 17.0% and 19.4%, respectively. However, the trend has shifted in early 2026, with the U.S. Census Bureau reporting a significant trade deficit in U.S.-Vietnam goods trade for the first two months of the year. U.S. exports to Vietnam totaled $6.2 billion, while imports reached $76.3 billion, resulting in a deficit of $70.1 billion for the period.
Vietnam’s trade deficit is expected to remain a key economic challenge in the first half of 2026, as the country continues to rely heavily on imports of production materials, which accounted for 93.6% of total imports in 2025. China remains the largest source of these imports, underscoring the structural dependencies in Vietnam’s trade relationships. Meanwhile, the U.S. remains Vietnam’s largest export market, with bilateral trade turnover reaching $153.2 billion in 2025.
The projected deficit highlights the need for continued policy adjustments to support export competitiveness and manage import demand, particularly as global economic uncertainties persist.
