Bitcoin slides toward $70,000 as on-chain data flags bear market and traders bet Fed holds in April: Asia Morning Briefing

• Bitcoin is showing full bear-market signals as on-chain data points to fading participation, weak spot demand and tightening liquidity, with prices stuck in the mid-$70,000s.
• U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have turned from net buyers to net sellers and the Coinbase premium remains negative, underscoring a sharp drop in U.S. demand that has historically powered bull markets.
• Broader macro conditions, including expectations for steady Federal Reserve policy and political pressure on rate decisions, are keeping liquidity constrained and weighing on crypto and tech-linked risk assets across Asia.

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is entering the Asian trading day with on-chain data flashing full bear-market signals, as prices hover in the mid-$70,000s and global equity markets continue to search for direction.

CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report frames the weakness as structural rather than cyclical, with its Bull Score Index sitting at zero while bitcoin trades far below its October peak. The report argues the market is no longer digesting gains but operating with a thinner buyer base and tightening liquidity.

Glassnode data reinforces that picture, pointing to weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum where selling pressure is not being met with sustained absorption. In effect, the issue is less panic than participation.

Institutional flows underline the shift. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which were net accumulators at this time last year, have flipped into net sellers, creating a year over year demand gap measured in tens of thousands of bitcoin.

At the same time, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since October, signaling that U.S. investors are not meaningfully stepping in despite lower prices. Historically, sustained bull phases have coincided with strong U.S. spot demand. That engine is currently idling.

Liquidity conditions are also tightening beneath the surface. Stablecoin expansion, which typically fuels risk appetite and trading activity, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023.

Longer-term apparent demand growth has likewise collapsed from last year’s highs, suggesting this is not merely leverage being flushed but participation itself fading. Technically, bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with on-chain valuation bands clustering major support in the $70,000 to $60,000 corridor.

Overlaying this is a macro backdrop where bitcoin is increasingly behaving like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets show traders still leaning heavily toward no change at the Federal Reserve’s April meeting, with only modest expectations for a June rate cut. That hesitancy limits the prospect of near term liquidity relief.

The policy narrative is further complicated by politics. President Donald Trump recently spoke to the press about his Fed nominee Kevin Warsh and said during an interview with NBC News a Fed chair who wanted to raise rates “would not have gotten the job,” a remark that tempers earlier optimism about central bank independence.

For Asia, the result is a market defined less by shock than by absence, where bounces remain possible, but conviction remains thin.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin drifted lower into the mid $70,000s after briefly testing support, with rebounds fading quickly as spot demand remained thin and tech stocks stayed under pressure.

ETH: Ether hovered just above the low $2,000s, struggling to build momentum as broader risk sentiment softened and flows remained muted across major exchanges.

Gold: Gold rebounded toward the $5,000 to $5,100 range, extending a volatile recovery driven by safe-haven buying after U.S.–Iran tensions flared and softer private payroll data offset mixed economic signals while traders reassessed the Fed outlook under Trump’s new chair pick.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged lower by roughly 0.3% as chip and tech heavyweights tracked Wall Street’s sell-off, though broader Japanese equities remained relatively resilient compared with regional peers.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• Binance denies issuing legal threats over insolvency allegations (The Block)
• Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani steps down after nearly a decade to pursue other areas of tech (CoinDesk)