Ahead of tonight's US jobs data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 24.4%.
AI Summary1 min read
TL;DR
CME FedWatch data shows a 24.4% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in January, with 75.6% for unchanged rates. For March, probabilities include 49% unchanged, 42.4% for a 25bp cut, and 8.6% for a 50bp cut. US jobs data for November is expected tonight.
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Federal Reserveinterest ratesUS jobs dataCME FedWatchFOMC meetings
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, prior to tonight's US employment data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 75.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until March next year is 49%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 42.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 8.6%. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data for November and the US unemployment rate data for November at 21:30 (UTC+8) tonight. The expected figures are 4 million non-farm payrolls and 4.40% unemployment rate.