The yield on the 10-year JGB rose 4.0 basis points to 2.720%

The yield on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) rose 4.0 basis points to 2.720% on June 30, 2026, continuing a recent upward trend driven by expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and a weaker yen. The increase follows a 0.04 percentage point rise on July 1, bringing the yield to 2.73%, and follows a 0.05 percentage point increase on June 30, when the yield reached 2.69%. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.16 points and is 1.29 points higher than a year ago.

The yen has remained under pressure due to the widening interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, with the Federal Reserve expected to deliver multiple rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated the central bank's readiness to raise rates further if economic activity, inflation, and financial conditions evolve as expected. Recent hawkish comments from BOJ officials, including board member Naoki Tamura, have reinforced market expectations of continued rate hikes in 2026.

Looking ahead, analysts expect the 10-year JGB yield to trade at 2.60% by the end of the quarter and 2.40% in 12 months. The BOJ is scheduled to announce its next policy decision on July 31, with market participants closely watching for further signals on the pace of tightening.