Next week's macroeconomic outlook: CPI faces off against Fed's attacks, geopolitical forces counter the index sell-off.

According to ChainCatcher, in the first full trading week of 2026, cross-asset markets rallied in tandem, and risk sentiment on Wall Street is booming again. Investors' appetite for risk is evident. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% this week, and the Russell 2000 gained 4.6%. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) attracted $10 billion in just a few days—an astonishing speed for a passive fund. These figures mark a strong start to the year.

On Tuesday at 21:30, the US will release its December unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, and unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate. On Wednesday at 21:30, the US will release its November retail sales month-on-month rate, US November PPI year-on-year/month-on-month rate, and US Q3 current account. On Thursday at 21:30, the US will release its initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, the US January New York Fed/Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and the US November Import Price Index month-on-month rate. In addition, Fed officials will be speaking out intensively next week, suggesting that there is a strong likelihood that the Fed will not cut interest rates before Powell's successor takes office (see attached chart for details). Strategists at Bank of America Global Research stated that Friday's data reinforced their belief that the Fed will not cut interest rates again before Powell's successor takes office. Next week, US Secretary of State Rubio plans to meet with officials from Denmark and Greenland. The unrest across Iran (including the capital Tehran) caused by anti-government demonstrations may also affect market risk sentiment in the short term.