Arthur Hayes' Maelstrom enters 2026 at 'almost maximum risk' betting on altcoins

• Arthur Hayes' Maelstrom fund has taken an "almost maximum risk" stance in 2026, focusing on risk assets like bitcoin and emerging DeFi tokens, with minimal stablecoin exposure.
• The fund is betting on a liquidity wave driven by U,S. deficit spending and potential money printing by the Federal Reserve, which Hayes expects to support crypto prices.
• Maelstrom's 2025 performance was profitable but uneven, and Hayes is now leaning into "credible" narratives supported by the broader liquidity environment.

Maelstrom, the investment fund founded by Arthur Hayes, is starting 2026 with what Hayes calls “almost maximum risk” exposure, extending an aggressive stance adopted in the second half of last year and pointing to minimal stablecoin exposure.

Hayes said Maelstrom remains deep in risk assets, but with a refined focus on privacy coins like zcash ZEC$497.57 and emerging decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens now leading the portfolio, in an essay published on Tuesday.

“Maelstrom entered 2026 with almost maximum risk,” Hayes wrote. “While we will continue to invest spare cash generated from various financing trades into Bitcoin, our dollar stables position is very low.”

The stance marks a sharp reversal from Maelstrom’s public positioning early last year, when Hayes predicted the price of bitcoin would drop as low as $70,000 in a “mini financial crisis” before quantitative easing would resume.

In May 2025, Hayes confirmed that Maelstrom “reduced risk, raised fiat” in late January. The fund, however, started aggressively adding risk, going “maximum long in terms of outright crypto exposure” in April, when bitcoin briefly dipped below $85,000 over Trump’s so-called Liberation Day tariffs.

By summer, the fund was “backing up the truck” for what he framed as a new altcoin cycle. That high-conviction stance didn’t fade as the year progressed, and Hayes expanded into privacy coin positions he said were at bargain prices.

In December, Hayes said it was “time to go shopping” as rate cuts and Fed reserve expansion started and said Maelstrom was “busy loading up.”

Hayes, who regarded as one of the crypto industry's most influential macro commentators, is is now betting on the same macro playbook continuing to push crypto prices higher: rising nominal GDP, U.S. deficit spending, and what he sees as inevitable money printing by the Federal Reserve.

He argues this liquidity wave, driven in part by geopolitical moves like the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, will support crypto broadly, but especially reward higher-risk plays in lesser-known tokens.

The thesis is based on the U.S. pumping the economy with credit in a bid to keep oil prices in check.

Hayes says Maelstrom’s performance in 2025 was profitable, but uneven, with strong returns from tokens like BTC, HYPE, and PENDLE, and costly missteps in others, such as PUMP. He now plans to lean into “credible” narratives supported by the broader liquidity environment.

The shift comes as chain abstraction stablecoin startup River unveiled it secured a strategic investment from Maelstrom, although it did not reveal specific figures.

• KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
• This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
• Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
• Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
• Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.

• XRP fell from $2.39 to $2.27, breaking below the $2.32 support level.
• A high-volume drop to $2.21 was absorbed by demand, stabilizing the price.
• Traders are watching if XRP can reclaim the $2.31-$2.32 range or remain in a descending channel.

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