Bitcoin rebounds toward $70,000 as ETFs pull in $1.45 billion in five days

• Bitcoin’s rebound toward $70,000 has been driven largely by short-covering and positioning rather than renewed bullish conviction, according to market maker Enflux.
• Institutional demand remains a key source of support, with spot bitcoin ETFs drawing about $1.45 billion in net inflows over the past five trading days.
• On-chain, derivatives and prediction-market data indicate that bitcoin has found near-term support, but traders remain cautious and are not yet pricing in either a decisive rally or a deeper sell-off.

Bitcoin’s rebound toward $70,000 — trading at $68,000 as Hong Kong hit midday — appears to have been driven more by positioning than conviction, according to market maker Enflux, which said the move largely reflected short-covering after traders leaned bearish amid geopolitical headlines.

“The market is not pricing catastrophe, but it is not pricing resolution either,” Enflux wrote in a note to CoinDesk. “Shorts leaned into the Iran headlines over the weekend, BTC flushed toward 63k, and when escalation did not immediately spiral into a broader regional war affecting the Gulf and Dubai trade corridors, the squeeze began.”

Crypto tends to react faster than traditional assets during geopolitical shocks, Enflux added.

“When bombs drop, or sanctions tighten, capital looks for exit routes. In times of uncertainty, BTC becomes a pressure valve,” the firm wrote.

Institutional demand has remained a key source of support. Over the past five trading days, BTC ETFs have attracted roughly $1.45 billion in net inflows.

Onchain and derivatives indicators suggest the market is stabilizing but not yet regaining strong conviction.

In a recent report, Glassnode wrote that momentum indicators are beginning to recover from recent weakness, with bitcoin’s relative strength index rising to about 41 from 36 the previous week, though still below the neutral 50 level that would signal stronger bullish control.

Spot market conditions have also improved. Trading volume has climbed to roughly $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion the previous week, while buying and selling flows in spot markets have become more balanced, suggesting the earlier wave of aggressive selling has begun to ease.

Derivatives markets remain cautious. Glassnode said the cost of holding leveraged long positions has dropped sharply, while futures trading still shows sellers dominating buyers, signaling continued caution among leveraged traders.

Prediction markets reflect the same cooling of conviction: the probability of bitcoin falling to $65,000 in March has dropped 11 percentage points to 73%, the odds of $60,000 have fallen 10 points to 41%, and a separate Polymarket contract showing bitcoin hitting $60,000 before $80,000 has also weakened, sliding 12 points to 61%.

Together, the data suggests bitcoin has found support for now, but traders remain hesitant to price in either a decisive rally or a deeper selloff.

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• Polymarket has removed long-running markets that let users bet on the likelihood of a nuclear weapon detonating, amid the current conflict with Iran and criticism over war-related insider trading.
• The nuclear-detonation contracts, which at times implied risks as high as 19 percent and drew millions of dollars in volume, have renewed concerns that insiders could profit from advance knowledge of military actions.
• The controversy comes as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission weighs rules that would bar regulated exchanges from listing event contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination and other activities deemed contrary to the public interest.

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