Senator Flags White House 'Corruption' Concerns Over Iran War Predictions Markets
TL;DR
Senator Chris Murphy accuses White House insiders of profiting from prediction market bets on U.S. strikes against Iran, citing $1.2 million in suspicious trades. He warns this creates corruption risks in military decisions and plans legislation to ban such markets.
Key Takeaways
- •Senator Chris Murphy alleges insider trading on prediction markets ahead of U.S. strikes on Iran, with $1.2 million in suspicious profits.
- •Murphy warns prediction markets could corrupt national security decisions if officials profit from war outcomes.
- •Polymarket saw a surge in geopolitics betting, with $425 million traded in one week, and recently removed a nuclear detonation market after backlash.
- •Murphy plans legislation to ban prediction markets on sensitive government actions, citing corruption and destabilization risks.
- •Israeli authorities previously charged individuals with using classified intelligence for Polymarket bets, highlighting similar concerns.
Tags
A series of unusually timed prediction market bets placed just hours before U.S. strikes on Iran has triggered fresh accusations of insider profiteering, with Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) warning that individuals with advance knowledge of military decisions may have made money wagering on war.
“The Iran war is fueling a new kind of corruption: White House officials secretly profiting off war,” Murphy said in a video posted to X. “It's disgusting. We need to ban it.”
“It looks like those six big accounts that were set up on Friday made a profit of a million dollars off of us going to war on Saturday,” he added.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six suspected insider accounts last week that collectively made $1.2 million on Polymarket bets on whether "U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?"
Most of the wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack and bought “Yes” shares just hours before explosions in Tehran, with one account purchasing over 560,000 shares at about 10.8 cents—later paying out nearly $560,000 when the market settled at $1.
Traders poured $425.4 million into Polymarket’s geopolitics markets in the week ending March 1, compared with $163.9 million the week before, according to user-compiled Dune Analytics data.
The White House and Polymarket did not immediately respond to Decrypt's requests for comment.
The backlash against prediction markets comes as the U.S. Senate rejected a bipartisan war power resolution seeking to limit President Donald Trump’s authority to continue military action in Iran without congressional approval, in a 53–47 vote.
Murphy has previously signaled that he plans to introduce legislation banning prediction markets that allow individuals to profit from sensitive government actions.
Last month, the senator wrote on X that he is working on legislation to ban "corrupt and destabilizing prediction markets," where insiders aware of a given outcome "can rig the game to favor certain bets.”
A New York Times analysis of Polymarket data found more than 150 accounts placed bets of at least $1,000 correctly predicting an American strike by Saturday, a late surge totaling roughly $855,000.
At least 16 of those accounts each ultimately profited by over $100,000, according to the report.
"If we continue to allow people to bet on war, on military strikes, then you're going to have people inside the Situation Room who are making decisions not based on what's good for national security, but based upon whether they'll make money off of war," Murphy said on Wednesday. "There's going to be somebody in that room who's going to be pushing us into war because they can cash in."
Murphy also pointed to rising costs facing Americans, saying that at a time when people are struggling to afford groceries and gas, and prices are climbing because of the war, it is “even more outrageous that there are people inside the White House who are making tons of money.”
Last month, Israeli authorities charged an IDF reservist and a civilian with using classified military intelligence to place Polymarket bets ahead of Israel's operations against Iran.
On Tuesday, Polymarket pulled a market asking traders to bet on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year, after it drew widespread backlash.