Mexican peso seen at 18.18/USD at end-2026: Citi survey

Mexican peso seen at 18.18/USD at end-2026: Citi survey

The latest Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Feb. 4, 2026) indicates that the Mexican peso is projected to trade at 18.35 per U.S. dollar by year-end 2026, reflecting a strengthening consensus compared to the previous survey's 18.75 estimate according to the survey. This improvement follows a broader trend of revised optimism about the peso's performance, with expectations ranging from 17.10 to 20.30 for end-2026. For 2027, the consensus forecasts a rate of 19.00, down slightly from 19.07 in the prior survey as reported.

The peso's trajectory aligns with expectations of continued monetary policy easing. The median forecast for the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) policy rate remains at 6.50% for both end-2026 and end-2027, with a 25-basis-point rate cut anticipated in May 2026 according to the survey. Analysts attribute the peso's relative strength to moderating inflation and a supportive policy environment.

Inflation expectations for 2026 remain stable, with the median headline inflation forecast at 4.0% year-end, while core inflation is projected to rise marginally to 4.1% as the survey shows. For 2027, both headline and core inflation are expected to decline to 3.75% and 3.71%, respectively according to the report. Meanwhile, GDP growth projections for 2026 increased to 1.4% in the latest survey, up from 1.3% previously, with 1.8% anticipated for 2027 as cited.

The peso's performance in 2025—closing at 18.00 per dollar—has exceeded expectations, driven by stronger-than-anticipated economic resilience and global factors according to Citi's analysis. However, challenges such as inflation persistence and external demand remain key risks to the outlook.