Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin returns may see steady growth over the next decade, but explosive growth is unlikely.
TL;DR
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin will see steady, sustained returns over the next decade with lower volatility, but not explosive growth. He remains bullish for 2026, citing institutional inflows as a buffer against deep corrections, while some traders caution about potential price drops.
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[Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Returns May Steadily Rise Over the Next Decade, But "Explosive" Growth Unlikely] According to Mars Finance, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin is expected to achieve sustained and steady returns over the next decade, but extreme single-year gains are unlikely. He pointed out that Bitcoin may be entering a phase of "long-term, slow upward movement," accompanied by relatively lower volatility, but will still experience cyclical corrections. Hougan also maintained his overall bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2026, believing that prices still have room to rise next year. Hougan believes that the recent pullback in Bitcoin has been significantly smaller than historical cycles, mainly due to the continuous and slow inflow of institutional funds, providing support for price declines. ReserveOne Chief Investment Officer Sebastian Beau stated that whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle has ended remains controversial. The current price has fallen rapidly by about 30% from its high, but has not yet seen the deep corrections of over 60% seen in previous cycles. Some market participants remain cautious; trader Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin may fall to $60,000 in the third quarter of 2026. Regarding macroeconomic and policy factors, Hougan believes that the Trump administration's marginal impact on Bitcoin prices is limited, and the regulatory authorities have already clearly defined its "commodity attributes," so future policy changes are unlikely to become the main driver of price increases.