Polymarket bettors put $3 million on which crypto firm ZachXBT will expose next

• A Polymarket prediction market on which crypto company ZachXBT will accuse of insider trading has drawn nearly $3 million in volume ahead of his promised February 26 report.
• Traders currently see Solana-based liquidity platform Meteora as the leading candidate at about 43% odds, with Axiom, Pump.fun, Jupiter and MEXC trailing at lower probabilities.
• While shifting odds reflect where thousands of bettors are willing to risk money, the market prices speculation rather than evidence and offers no confirmed insight into ZachXBT's investigation.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT hasn't named the target yet. Polymarket bettors are already pricing it in.

A prediction market asking which crypto company ZachXBT will expose for insider trading has drawn nearly $3 million in volume since the on-chain sleuth posted on X that a "major investigation" into one of crypto's most profitable businesses would drop on February 26. He offered no specifics beyond alleging insider trading.

That was enough. Within hours, Polymarket traders began placing bets across several candidates, and the resulting odds function as a real-time map of where the market thinks the bodies are buried.

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction platform where users trade contracts on real-world outcomes using real money. The odds tend to reflect genuine conviction because bettors risk capital rather than just opinions. The platform gained mainstream credibility during the 2024 U.S. election cycle and has since become crypto's de facto sentiment gauge for unresolved events.

As of Asian morning hours Tuesday, Meteora is the heavy favorite at 43%, with $319,000 in volume on that outcome alone. The Solana-based liquidity layer has been a recurring name in community discussions around meme coin market structure — particularly around how launch liquidity gets seeded and who ends up on the right side of early price moves.

Its proximity to politically linked token activity, including Trump-themed meme coins, has kept it in the spotlight.

Axiom sits at 13%, followed by Pump.fun at 12% with the highest single-outcome volume at $332,000 — suggesting heavy two-way action rather than consensus. Pump.fun's inclusion tracks with months of scrutiny over early-wallet sniping on the platform, though the project has denied allegations of insider advantages.

Jupiter rounds out at 8% and MEXC at 7%. Jupiter's presence reflects broader questions about Solana DeFi routing and fee extraction, while MEXC has faced persistent social media chatter about listing behavior and whale-friendly timing on meme coin markets.

The odds have shifted notably since the market opened. Axiom, Pump.fun, and Jupiter have all fallen 37-42% from their initial readings, while Meteora has consolidated its lead — a pattern that suggests early speculation has given way to more directional conviction as bettors parse ZachXBT's prior work and posting patterns for clues.

None of this constitutes evidence, however. Prediction markets price belief, not fact, and Polymarket's odds reflect the collective speculation of a few thousand traders rather than any inside knowledge of the investigation itself.

But the market is doing what prediction markets do best — forcing participants to put capital behind their hunches rather than just tweeting them.

The answer arrives in two days.

• Crypto derivatives such as ETF-linked options and futures could rival or exceed spot trading volumes on major global exchanges.
• As derivatives activity scales on regulated venues, volatility pricing in U.S. markets may play a larger role in setting bitcoin’s global price.
• The shift would further consolidate price discovery within regulated futures markets, extending their influence over the broader crypto ecosystem.

Disclosure & Polices: CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk has adopted a set of principles aimed at ensuring the integrity, editorial independence and freedom from bias of its publications. CoinDesk is part of Bullish (NYSE:BLSH), an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services. Bullish owns and invests in digital asset businesses and digital assets and CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive Bullish equity-based compensation.